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Before Market Opens: Indian markets are likely to open on a positive note on Monday as RBI on Friday kept the repo rates unchanged, as expected. However, Asian peers were cautious as US payrolls dented Fed rate cut hopes. Meanwhile, Gift Nifty was trading 30 points higher, indicating a strong start for benchmark Nifty. Let’s take a look at some key cues before the market opens today:
US stock market indices ended higher on Friday after a strong jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 307.06 points, or 0.80%, to 38,904.04, while the S&P 500 rallied 57.13 points, or 1.11%, to 5,204.34. The Nasdaq Composite ended 199.44 points, or 1.24%, higher at 16,248.52.
Asian shares started the week on a subdued note on Monday, while the dollar firmed as investors weighed when the U.S. Federal Reserve will start cutting rates in the wake of yet another blowout jobs report. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.26% higher, while Tokyo’s Nikkei rose 1%. China mainland stocks reopened after extended holidays from Thursday, with the blue-chip gauge 0.5% lower. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 0.33%.
Indian stock market benchmarks the Sensex and the Nifty 50 ended flat on Friday, April 5, after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the repo rates unchanged, as expected. The Sensex rose 20.59 points, or 0.03%, to close at 74,248.22, while the Nifty 50 settled flat at 22,513.70. The domestic market remained lacklustre throughout the session as the RBI policy did not provide clear signals on when rate cuts may begin. Additionally, geopolitical tensions, rising crude oil prices, and weak global cues further weighed on sentiment.
In the first bi-monthly policy of FY25, the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee, on Friday, kept the repo rates unchanged at 6.5 percent for the seventh consecutive time and maintained its policy stance as ‘withdrawal of accommodation’. Meanwhile, it maintained the real GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal year at 7%. The RBI also projected CPI inflation for the year 2024–25 (FY25) is 4.5%, with Q1 at 4.9%, Q2 at 3.8%, Q3 at 4.6%, and Q4 at 4.5%.
At 8:20 am, Gift Nifty was trading 30 points or 0.10 percent higher at 22,650, indicating a positive opening for the Indian markets.
Oil prices fell more than $1 a barrel on Monday, with Brent sliding under $90, as Middle East tensions eased after Israel withdrew more soldiers from southern Gaza and committed to fresh talks on a potential ceasefire in the six-month conflict. Brent crude futures slipped $1.70, or 1.9%, to $89.47 a barrel by 0053 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $85.29 a barrel, down $1.62, or 1.9%.
Gold prices slipped more than 1% on Monday as the dollar and Treasury yields held firm after strong U.S. data heightened doubts on whether the Federal Reserve would deliver three interest rate cuts this year. Spot gold was down 1.1% at $2,305.09 per ounce, as of 0109 GMT, after hitting a record high of $2,330.06 on Friday. U.S. gold futures edged 0.9% lower to $2,324.20 per ounce.
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net bought shares worth ₹1,659.27 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) sold ₹3,370.42 crore worth of stocks on April 5, provisional data from the NSE showed.
The Indian rupee will likely hold an upward bias on Monday despite a report indicating a robust U.S. labour market that spurred a surge in U.S. Treasury yields. Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open slightly higher-to-flat to the U.S. dollar compared with 83.2950 in the previous session. The local currency managed a turnaround on Friday, after having slipped to a record low of 83.4550 a day before that. The expectations that the central bank will not allow a big slide in the rupee alongside an abatement in dollar demand related to currency futures helped the rupee recover, traders said.
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